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RFK's Glyphosate Gambit Breaks MAHA

Macro Alpha Chat

Feb 19 – Feb 26, 2026

Macro Alpha Chat
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TL;DR — 3 Things to Know

  1. The MAHA coalition is cracking. A White House glyphosate EO with a liability shield backfired — RFK's own base is turning on him. Bayer ($BAYN) holds the legacy Monsanto liability and is the most directly affected.
  2. Private credit redemptions are real. Retail investors are pulling money from PE-adjacent funds at a pace that suggests the 2021 retail-to-alts experiment may be unwinding.
  3. AI schools are pricing themselves into backlash. At $65K/year, affluent parents are already questioning the value — and floating low-tech co-op alternatives instead.

1. RFK, Glyphosate & the MAHA Fracture

The biggest thread of the week. A White House executive order on glyphosate-based herbicides dropped and the group spent multiple days unpacking it.

  • The EO was flagged immediately alongside an old RFK Jr. post on glyphosate. The general reaction was that this was a strange move that would energize anti-Monsanto sentiment in unpredictable ways.
  • By mid-week, a NYT piece on MAHA-aligned mothers turning against RFK over the glyphosate liability shield was shared. The group's take: the EO itself may be directionally correct, but the liability shield bundled with it is politically toxic.
  • There was genuine respect for the MAHA base pushing back — ideologically motivated health advocates are more willing to break ranks than establishment public health voices ever were.
  • The underlying read: MAHA as a political coalition is fracturing faster than expected, and the glyphosate EO was a self-inflicted wound.
Signal: Bayer ($BAYN) holds the legacy Monsanto glyphosate liability — if the liability shield holds, it's a meaningful tailwind on their biggest overhang. If it collapses politically, the status quo resumes.

2. Private Credit Redemptions — Is This the Shoe Dropping?

A post about retail redemption pressure on PE firms sparked a sharp exchange.

  • The consensus was that this is significant — retail has been the growth engine for private equity fundraising, and meaningful redemptions are now flowing.
  • The group debated whether this is the beginning of the private credit correction that contrarians have flagged since 2021.
  • The open question: was the retail move into private credit a 2021 experiment gone wrong? No one had a definitive answer, but the directional consensus was bearish.
Signal: The broader question — whether retail appetite for private credit has peaked — has implications across the alternative asset management space.

3. AI-Powered Schools: $65K/Year for AI Tutoring

A link about an AI-driven school concept with locations in Santa Monica and Palm Beach triggered a lively debate about education.

  • Price shock was the dominant reaction: $65K/year on the west coast, $50K on the east coast. One person is seriously considering it for their kids. Others were incredulous.
  • This quickly spiraled into a genuine counter-proposal: start a co-op homeschool together — no AI, no screens, one teacher, one admin, split costs among families.
  • Location preferences surfaced as a real factor — some areas were dismissed while others generated actual interest.
Signal: Among affluent, tech-savvy parents, there's a growing counter-movement toward low-tech, high-touch education. The microschool/pod model may be the more durable trend than AI-first schooling.

4. OpenAI's Communications Gap

A clip of an OpenAI spokesperson struggling in a media appearance was shared. The unanimous reaction was that they need better public-facing representation — their communications strategy is not keeping pace with their technical output.

Signal: OpenAI (private) is in a critical period of enterprise and consumer trust-building. Narrative missteps matter when you're trying to close enterprise deals and maintain public goodwill simultaneously.

5. Fintwit, Citrini & Who Moves Markets Now

Someone flagged that a social media finance personality was apparently moving markets, with Cramer reportedly referencing the account on CNBC. This led to a broader reflection: the signal-to-noise ratio on social platforms has degraded to the point where authentic insight is buried under performative content.

Signal: The fintwit-to-CNBC pipeline is a real phenomenon. When social media accounts start moving prices and getting mainstream airtime, it's worth paying attention to what they're promoting — and worth being cautious about names with that kind of retail momentum behind them.

6. Quick Hits

  • Humanoid robots: Genuine interest in the Unitree (private) robotics devkit (~$20K) as a platform for building with AI coding tools. Early but not dismissive.
  • Scott Galloway parenting take: Galloway's podcast comments dismissing the value of fathers in early childcare were not well received. No investment signal, but a reminder that media personalities can damage their brand with a single careless take.
  • Gaming loot boxes & youth gambling: The NY Attorney General's action on gaming loot boxes was discussed. Roblox ($RBLX) came up as the obvious name given its youth-concentrated DAU.
  • Data privacy / social apps: Sarcastic commentary on a social app's data collection practices — the group found the value exchange laughably one-sided.

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